Once, the possibility of losing his home state's primary election was almost unthinkable.
Once, Rick Santorum shockingly upset an entrenched Pittsburgh area Democratic congressman, Doug Walgren, then pulled another stunning upset four years later over Democratic Sen. Harris Wofford to win a Senate seat.
The same Rick Santorum got trounced in his 2006 Senate re-election bid by Democrat Bob Casey, but that was supposedly a sign of the times. No way the Republicans' former number three man in the Senate from southwest Pennsylvania could lose his former home state's Republican presidential primary to ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Why only a month ago, a Franklin & Marshall College poll of registered Republicans had Santorum up almost 30 percentage points.
Just like Santorum's congressional career, the lead faded.
As Romney piled up wins in other states over the last month, Santorum's fortunes sank on the national level, and his standing in Pennsylvania along with them.
In the last two weeks, four polls of Pennsylvania Republican voters, including another by Franklin & Marshall, showed Santorum's once dominant margin at 2 to 6 percentage points. One poll, by a Democratic-leaning firm, had Romney up 5 points.
The once unthinkable is suddenly possible.
"Absolutely, he could lose here," political analyst Christopher P. Borick said.
With Romney coming off primary wins in Wisconsin, Washington, D.C. and Maryland on Tuesday, the Republican presidential nominat-
ing process is in a three-week stretch of campaigning leading up to primary elections April 24 in Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island.
Pennsylvania's 72 delegates are second only to New York's 95 that day.
Santorum says the race is at "halftime," but the truth is he has less than half the delegates of Romney - 655 to 272, according to the RealClearPolitics.com count.
"And who's ready to charge out of the locker room in Pennsylvania for a strong second half?" Santorum asked a crowd in Mars, Butler County, the county where he was raised.
Well, Santorum better be ready because he needs a big third quarter and a big fourth quarter on top of that to regain serious hopes of contending again for the nomination.
Defeat in Pennsylvania would doom his chances this year for good.
As it was for former Sen. Hillary Clinton, when she fell behind in delegates in 2008 against Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the math is against Santorum.
With 20 states to go, Santorum must win 82.8 percent of all the remaining delegates to reach the 1,144 needed for nomination while Romney only needs 46.4 percent. Santorum's is task complicated by the fact that 16 of the 20 award delegates proportionally, which means Romney is almost certain to keep getting a share.
Another factor complicates matters here for Santorum, too. He fought so hard in earlier states to stay alive he could not recruit people to run as his delegates as actively as Romney. So he could win the popular vote, but watch Romney walk away with a larger share of delegates than normally expected.
Just adding delegates is Romney's chief strategy here.
"We're going to campaign and compete in Pennsylvania, but honestly we expect Santorum to win his home state just like Mitt won Massachusetts, Newt (Gingrich) won Georgia," said Amanda Henneberg, a spokeswoman for Romney's campaign. "Our goal is to earn as many delegates as we can in Pennsylvania."
Santorum has said he must win Pennsylvania, predicted he will win and spur his next revival.
"He's already done," said Michael Federici, Ph.D., chairman of the political science department at Mercyhurst University. "And he's already done in part because if you look at the lineup of primaries and you look at the delegate count, he can't get anywhere near (the nominating number). His only hope would be a brokered convention."
In a brokered Republican National Convention, Romney would fail to win nomination on the first ballot and maybe committed delegates would be free to back others on subsequent ballots.
Despite the delegate math, Santorum, never a quitter, fights on, and other math remains in his favor. Poll numbers underlying even his narrower lead show a candidate who remains popular and respected.
- More than half (52 percent) of the Republicans who answered a recent Quinnipiac University poll said Santorum has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life. Only a quarter (25 percent) said that of Romney.
- Almost half (49 percent) said Santorum changes his position less often than most public figures. Slightly more than a quarter (27 percent) said that about Romney.
- Almost two-thirds (64 percent) had a favorable view of Santorum while about six in 10 (59 percent) had a favorable view of Romney.
As in other states, Santorum polls well with broad swaths of the Republican electorate here. In the Quinnipiac poll, he did better than Romney by substantial or wide margins among self-identified conservatives; white-born-again-evangelicals; Tea Party members; people lacking college degrees and earning less than $100,000; and all age groups except senior citizens.
They form his conservative base, but as even Santorum has acknowledged, Pennsylvania's Republicans are a more diverse group that comes late to staunch conservatism if at all.
"He's trying to make the case that they will lose if they nominate Romney," said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the director of the Franklin & Marshall polls that Santorum last Sunday criticized as the work of "a Democratic hack" before other polling verified the race's closeness. "Now, the big question I have is does he stay on that message or does he shift the paradigm back to the economy and back to the issues that moderate voters care about, which are debts and deficits and budget matters and fiscal matters, not social issues."
Santorum is still the favorite to win Pennsylvania, but to widen his margin beyond current polls, he must enlarge his current base or appeal to moderates, Madonna said.
It is a difficult task for a conservative Republican who lost all four Republican-vote-rich suburban Philadelphia counties to Casey in 2006. Most observers attributed Santorum's 2006 loss to a political environment that had turned against President George W. Bush, whom Santorum has staunchly supported, but his tepid showing in polls points to perhaps other reasons.
Some conservative Republicans could also be feeling less warmth for Santorum because of his 2004 support for the re-election of U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, who narrowly defeated conservative darling Pat Toomey in the primary that year.
"It's hard for Santorum to make the argument, if people remember that, that he's Mr. Conservative because (they say) 'Really, Arlen Specter?'" Federici said.
Though Santorum grew up in Pennsylvania and sees himself as the hometown candidate, he has moved to Virginia and is not seen as much that way by voters here any longer, Allegheny County Republican Party Chairman Jim Roddey said,
"I just don't think that his message resonates with independents and moderate Democrats," Roddey said.
"His message is a good message for the conservative part of the Republican Party, but we're really trying to choose someone to run in November. Rick is a remarkable campaigner, he's gone further than any of us ever imagined that he would, but nevertheless he's not going to be the nominee. And I think the people in Pennsylvania really want someone that can win. To them, I think it's more important to win than to have somebody that they sort of feel like they have an obligation to support."
Santorum's emphasis on social issues is off target, Roddey said.
"While it will appeal to some voters, most people are concerned about the economy and jobs," Roddey said. "And I think that Rick is not even talking about that."
Roddey predicted a close outcome.
"I think it's a toss-up," he said. "I think Romney probably has the momentum, he's got a better organization, he's obviously got more money. So I think he will close that gap, and I think it's really about turnout whether or not Rick gets his old faithful supporters from the middle of the state to come out."
Even in his loss to Casey, Santorum won 34 of 67 counties, almost all of them in the state's Republican 'T' - the northern and central Pennsylvania counties that are solidly Republican.
They are where Mr. Santorum's base voters live, many of them the born-again evangelicals who have formed the core of his support in other states and view him in an almost messianic way,
"He sees this (campaign) in almost apocalyptic terms," Madonna said. "He sees this campaign as a mission to save America from falling off the precipice ... I think he believes that this is his place in time, his moment, and that (this is) his mission - (with) deeply felt feelings about freedom, government encroachment on all aspects of life, including religion and culture - that it's his time and I think that this is as much mission as it is a campaign."
In Earthly terms, there is still an election to win. On Thursday, according to published reports, Santorum met with conservative leaders to strategize. They apparently concluded one way is to increase pressure on Gingrich, the former House Speaker, to drop out so conservatives coalesce around Santorum.
"It's almost a no-win situation for Santorum," said Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
Winning Pennsylvania could offer Santorum some redemption for 2006, he said.
"But it doesn't change anything and it really doesn't prove much other than he was able to hold on to his home state," Borick said. "If he loses here, the combination of that loss and his defeat in 2006 is a scathing repudiation by his home state voters. And that's hard to swallow."